In our initial post, we quoted a source saying that the Reform Bill would save $114 Million over a period of years. In this connection, the term "save" in general refers to the benefits that will no longer be paid as they had in the past before the Reform bill.
We have just located a Press Release from State Representative Mike Turzai (R), which states that the savings from the reform bill will be nearly $1 Billion between now and 2018. Click Here to read the Press Release.
An interesting aspect of this release is - where did he come up with that figure? It's not from the severance provision - based upon my experience, there simply aren't that many people receiving severance packages worth in excess of $18,000. And, the money won't be saved because the bill makes some people at the very lowest edges of the income scale ineligible for benefits.
No, I surmise, Rep. Turzai is surmising that the large bulk of the savings will come about as a result of the job search requirements included within the Reform Bill.
Indeed, the import of the Press Release, in my view, is that a lot of money will now be saved because now, the __________ (lazy? shiftless?) claimants receivingg benefits will now have to seek work, and so they will be on unemployment for a shorter period of time.
Why will they be on unemployment for a shorter period of time? Because they will find jobs? In some cases, yes. However, in my experience, the overwhelming majority of people on unemployment are looking for work, with little success in many cases. And I doubt that Rep. Turzai's $1 Billion projection is based upon an expectation of an improving jobs market.
No, the projected savings will result from the disqualifying provisions of the Reform Bill. Rep. Turzai expects, in my opinion, that many unemployment claimants will in the future be disqualified from receiving unemployment under the Reform Bill because they will miss some deadline related to their job search, or fail to fill out some arcane form, thereby "disqualifying themselves" from the right to continue following benefits.
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